This point of view document was prepared by Marcus Thomas Director of Planning Services Tim Wild, Strategic Planner Stefanie Riediger and Partner, Media & Connections Planning Raphael Rivilla.
Media, particularly television media, has long been a critical tool used in presidential election campaigns. However, in the past decade, the U.S. has seen significant changes in how media is used for politics. Election campaigns are adopting digital and social platforms, targeting constituents more specifically, and spending larger media budgets than ever before. In addition, the federal government guarantees candidates’ airtime within election windows that cannot be pre-empted, and for the lowest unit rates available. Unfortunately, for commercial brands, this creates havoc, making it very difficult to continue advertising as usual. With a presidential election (and a Summer Olympics) coming in 2016, brands must challenge themselves to rethink and refine their media strategy for the year.
There are two key periods in an election cycle certain to impact media planning. These windows begin 45 days prior to the primaries (occurring January 2016 to June 2016; tentative dates by state are located here), and 60 days prior to the general election (September 7, 2016 to November 8, 2016). These windows are the only times presidential candidate campaigns are legally permitted to advertise.
However, in 2010, the “Citizens United” ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court protected corporate and union funding of political advertising under the First Amendment, giving rise to Super PACs (Political Action Committees). While Super PACs are not guaranteed the same right to airtime or the lowest rates like presidential candidates, they are free to advertise in support of a candidate outside of these election windows, and have extremely deep pockets.
Within election windows, particularly in the two to three weeks prior to the election, political advertising takes over available airtime. Regional and local vendors across the nation reported 50-90% saturation in 2012. Plus, if there are time slots that are not pre-empted by political ads, the cost to run a branded spot can jump 10-200%.
This supply and demand issue in combination with the rise of Super PACs led 2012 to be a record spending year for political advertising – spending upwards of $9 billion total and $3.1 billion in television media alone. The 2016 presidential election is predicted to be the most expensive in history, possibly with $4 billion in television advertising alone.
The addition of Super PAC advertising also means that political spending is starting earlier and spreading through more months of the year than previously allowed. According to Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, some analysts are predicting that “2016 political spend could start as early as Q4 2015” and in some key markets, the amount of political dollars being spent outside of the 2012 political windows has been 3 times more than expected.
While 2008 saw the introduction of social and digital political advertising, 2012 made it a line item. And in 2016 that line item number is expected to grow. In fact, Facebook now offers political support as part of its service offering, which means that advertisers can add higher CPPs and CPMs to sold-out digital video spots. According to AdWeek, “Digital ad spending is unquestionably enormous, but local TV spots are still where the real influence is."
Advertising price increases on social sites, which is a large paid traffic source for most political advertisers, could push presidential candidates and Super PACs into spending more on search engine marketing, especially on the Yahoo-Bing network, where the cost per click remains lower for many keywords.
“The CPC to run social ads on Facebook rose 180% from the start to the end of Q1 2015. It's reflective in Facebook's fourth quarter 2014 earnings report, reporting revenues in the U.S. up 54% sequentially”, as reported by MediaPost’s Data Insider. TechCrunch notes that revenue per advertiser in the U.S. grew 24% during the same time period, suggesting brands paid more.
The political media force is expected to fire on all cylinders for 2016, raising the ante with a concentrated presence again. Plus, the Summer Olympics will take over the conversation August 5-21. What does that mean for a brand? Revisit and revise media tactic while building upon your CRM, owned, and earned channels. Brands must be proactive, leverage a variety of communications channels, and be ready to pivot.
For seasonal brands, this presents additional challenges. The following are guidelines Marcus Thomas approach planning for 2016: